Why can’t I just find the final probability by dividing the number of times it rains 4 times in a row (1) with the total number of cases ( 11 ) just like the previous problem in the same video(“Given probability” video in prepswift Data interpretation topic) greg solved.
The final probability is not 1/11… it is 1/33
The reason why you can’t simply divide the number of times it rains 4 times in a row by the total number of cases to find the final probability is that the cases are not equally likely.
In the previous problem, all possible outcomes were equally likely, so dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of outcomes would give you the correct probability. However, in this problem, the cases are not equally likely. For example, the case where it rains 4 times in a row is less likely than the case where it rains 3 times and doesn’t rain once.
To calculate the correct probability, you need to take into account the probability of each case occurring. This is why the solution involves calculating the probability of each case separately and then summing them up to find the total probability.
Thanks a lot for the reply! It helped a lot
You’re welcome!
